Arizona (5-1) wasn’t supposed to be the team to beat after Week 7. San Francisco (4-3), after three straight NFC title game appearances, wasn’t supposed to be kicking its coach out of town. Seattle (3-3), the champ, wasn’t supposed to be searching for answers and blaming officials.
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But after a glance at injury reports and schedules, it all makes sense. This isn’t the real NFC West … not yet.
It all started — and will end — with NaVorro Bowman, the 49ers linebacker who tore up his knee in last year’s NFC Championship Game against the Seahawks. He won’t be back until later this season, and that’s when the wild West will sober up.
San Francisco, playing without Bowman and suspended linebacker Aldon Smith so far this season, isn’t alone with its lineup holes. Arizona is without John Abraham, Darnell Dockett and Daryl Washington (suspended indefinitely) for the year. St. Louis (2-4), albeit not considered a threat before the season, lost two quarterbacks.
Seattle’s been fortunate enough to not yet face any crippling, season-ending injuries. The Seahawks are banged up, though, and their apparent lack of depth proves to be an issue.
What will clear the muddled division landscape as the season progresses is the fact that, once healthy, the 49ers get the most back. The Cardinals are what they are right now, which is good but likely not good enough with inconsistent QB health. The Seahawks are what they are right now, a championship-caliber team that looks much less like a championship-caliber team when a few guys fall out of the lineup.
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But the 49ers are not what they are right now; not without Bowman and Smith, literally their two best players last season, according to Pro Football Focus . The fact that San Francisco remains the No. 2 ranked defense in yards allowed through seven weeks without its two best defenders is a frightening reality for the division — and the league, for that matter.
The 49ers also can hang their hat on the fact they’ve played the division’s toughest stretch of games, and their schedule lightens after the Week 8 bye. The combined record of San Francisco’s opponents played so far is 29-15, and that of remaining opponents is 27-33. Arizona’s future opponents are 35-29, and Seattle’s are 34-29.
49er wins over the Cowboys and Eagles, for example, are much sexier than the Cardnals’ wins over the Giants and Redskins. We’ll find out about that first place Arizona team when it faces those same Dallas and Philadelphia teams San Francisco beat.
As the 49ers’ schedule gets easier, their roster gets better. The opposite scenario applies for everybody else.
Only three of 12 West-on-West-action games have been played, so the division remains up for grabs. But a full-strength NFC West will make more sense, and a full-strength San Francisco should look best.
