The First Lady has always played the purist on health reform. It was her idea that Clinton threaten to veto any bill that failed to provide universal coverage. When her husband, with his urge to please everyone, seemed to hint two weeks ago to the National Governors’ Association that he could live with 95 percent coverage, there was much mirth on Capitol Hill about Hillary’s inevitable reaction. “Everybody was saying, “Wait till he gets home tonight!’ " laughed GOP Sen. John Chafee. Indeed the White House, at Hillary’s insistence, rushed to put out the word that the Clintons were still committed to universal coverage.
Universal coverage is impossible to attain, at least anytime soon, unless Clinton can persuade Congress to require employers to pay for their workers’ health insurance. The plan offered by House leaders last week would include the so-called employer mandate, and has a chance of passage. The Senate is a different matter. Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell this week will introduce a watered-down plan that would “trigger” an employer mandate only if other reforms fail to achieve universal coverage by the year 2002. The most optimistic head counts still put the plan five votes shy of passage, and the gap does not appear to be closing.
Despite the odds the Clintons do not seem to be panicking. On the contrary, they are exhibiting an almost eerie equanimity. They are accustomed by now to political near-death experiences. Clinton’s candidacy was said to be doomed several times in 1992, and he pulled out victories on the budget and NAFTA at the last moment.
On health care, his advisers, principally his wife, Hillary, have devised a strategy for a last-minute, come-from-behind victory. Even if the employer mandate loses in the Senate, it still could pass in the House. The bill would then go to conference to reconcile the differences. The Democratic leadership can control the conference and report out a final bill that includes the mandate. Both the Senate and House will have to vote for final passage. The White House is hoping that balky moderates will feel they cannot afford to say no to health reform on a simple up-down vote.
And if this strategy fails? The Clintons will blame Congress. They point to Harry Truman, who successfully ran against a “do nothing” Congress. The difference is that the Republicans controlled Congress in 1948. This time around the Clintons would be attacking their own party. The Clintons’ strategy includes another risk. It is possible that Congress would pass a less ambitious bill that fails to guarantee universal coverage but makes a start on health reform. If the president sticks to his veto threat, then the Clintons would take the blame for the collapse of health reform.
